Fallout predictions

Hi folks,

After class this week one thing I wondered was whether I'd exaggerated the possibility of fallout spreading all the way to the U.S.  A big difference between this disaster and Chernobyl (which I was using as a worst-case baseline) is that in the Chernobyl case, extremely hot fires were capable of launching the radioactive material high into the atmosphere.  Even in the very worst cases, that can't happen in the same way in Japan.

However, that doesn't mean there won't be a large fallout "plume" creeping its way across the globe.  The levels of radiation are not likely to be significant outside the local area of Japan, but they will be measurable, so we will definitely be hearing about it.  Some predictions for the wind flow patterns (not showing actual radiation levels yet):



The image above was generated by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (which we'll discuss a lot more later in the semester), and comes from an interactive graphic from the New York Times.